Locks
MLB – New York Mets/Philadelphia Phillies Under 9.5 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on ESPN
This is purely a play on the trends and the spot, as I see both saying this will be a low-scoring game.
When the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies have gotten together this season they haven’t exactly lit up the scoreboard despite having excellent hitters up and down both lineups. In their 13 meetings this season, the clubs are averaging 7.1 runs per game and are 10-3 under this total. This game will turn decidedly on the pitching of Mets starter Marcus Stroman – the ace of the staff with Jacob deGrom sidelined – and Stroman has been a good under bet himself with his starts going 18-4 under this number.
That includes 3-1 to the under against the Phillies, whose hitters he has dominated with a .192 average and .450 OPS allowed in his career. This game and series also have big implications for the NL East race with the Phillies just half a game back of the Mets, so I see managers keeping pitchers on short leashes in expectation of a close game. I don’t trust these offenses, especially not against each other with good pitchers on the mound, so I’ll go with the under here.
MLB – Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+135): 6:07 PM CT on SportsNet
I really believe these two teams are headed in opposite directions, and I want to capitalize on the value in this number because it’s based more on market perceptions than reality.
The Toronto Blue Jays really seem to be enjoying their return to north of the border, going 6-1 so far at Rogers Centre, with all those wins coming by two-plus runs. To me, it’s more about the positive trajectory for what is a really good team, even if they’re only 4th in the AL East.
But after splitting with the Jays at Fenway last week, the wheels have started coming off for the Boston Red Sox, losing 5 of 6 so far on this road trip and only scoring 2.8 runs per game in their last 10 contests. When the Red Sox aren’t overpowering teams offensively, they’re not winning, and I don’t see them overpowering Jays’ starter Alek Manoah, who has a 1.16 ERA in his last 4 outings.
I see that leading to an easy win for Toronto here. Instead of laying 35 cents on the moneyline, I’d much rather take 35 cents on the run line, so I’m going after this plus price.
MLB – Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports OH
The Cincinnati Reds extended their dominance over the Pittsburgh Pirates last night in an easy 7-4 victory, and they have another favorable matchup tonight. Wade Miley has been one of their best starters at home this season, and one of the few pitchers who can claim a sub-3.00 ERA at this hitters park. The Reds are 7-2 overall in his home starts including a 14-1 thrashing of Pittsburgh in his only start against them this season.
Miley should lead the Reds to another comfortable win based solely on the fact that the Pirates just don’t win on the road when JT Brubaker takes the mound. The Buccos starter has a 5.26 road ERA, they haven’t won a road game behind him since April 16th, and are 1-8 the last two months overall with him starting. Of their 14 losses with Brubaker starting, 11 have been by two-plus runs, and after last night the run differential in this series has ballooned to plus-37 for the Reds, equating to 5.3 per game.
Cincinnati gets to beat up on another right-handed starter tonight, so I’ll take this standard juice instead of the big moneyline.
MLB – Atlanta Braves Team Total Over 4.5 (-110): 6:20 PM CT on Bally Sports South
The Washington Nationals have been on a serious streak of allowing runs, the Atlanta Braves offense is heating up, and the meeting of those trends should make this bet an easy one.
The Nats have allowed the opposing team to clear this total in 14 of their 20 games since the All-Star Break including 6 straight, and have allowed an average of 6.4 runs per game over that stretch. Starting for them tonight is Erick Fedde, who carries a 7.76 ERA over his last 7 outings, and a 13.50 ERA in two starts against Atlanta this season.
The Braves have averaged 5.9 runs per game in their 17 9-inning games since the All-Star Break behind their revamped and deep lineup, plus they have cleared this total in 12 of those games and in 7 of 10 against Washington this season. The Braves will stack up dangerous left-handed bats to take advantage of Fedde’s .294 average and .857 OPS allowed to lefties this season, then go to work on a Nats bullpen that’s 2nd-worst in baseball for ERA and xFIP the past two weeks.
So with hot bats facing cold pitching, I’ll count on another strong offensive showing from Atlanta.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 346-245 ATS (+86.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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