Locks
MLB (1 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays/Baltimore Orioles Over 10.5 (-110): 12:05 PM CT on MASN2
I guess there’s just something in the water when these teams get together at Camden Yards. It’s one of the most consistently high-scoring series I can remember, as the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles have averaged 12.8 runs per game when they play in Baltimore this season, with a 5-0 record over this total.
That has contributed to the Orioles having the 2nd-best over percentage in home games, and the Rays having the 2nd-best over record on the road. I see that continuing today with a couple of bad pitchers on the mound. Michael Wacha has been good for Tampa at home but is a different story on the road, with a 6.15 ERA and .301 average allowed. And Jorge Lopez should return to his usual role as a gas can for the Orioles today since the Rays lineup has a career .344 average and .904 OPS against him.
The O’s have had double-digit runs scored against them in four straight games and the scoring shows no sign of stopping here, so take the over in this one.
Bonus Bet: (0.5 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-110):
Backing Michael Wacha for a road run line cover is not ideal, but the Rays have simply owned the Orioles this season in general and especially in Baltimore. In addition to those 5 overs at Camden, the Rays have covered the run line in all 5 games and have a plus-31 run differential. With the way Tampa’s lineup beats up on Lopez, plus the fact that 17 of the past 20 losses for the Orioles have been by two-plus runs (they’re the 3rd-worst run line cover team in baseball), this should be another comfortable win for the Rays.
MLB (0.75 Unit) 2-Team Parlay (+120)
MLB Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (-130): 12:10 PM CT on Bally Sports OH
Whether it’s covering the run line, clearing their team total, or dragging the game over themselves, this dominance by the Cincinnati Reds over the Pittsburgh Pirates is amazing.
I’m not complaining. In fact, I’m going right back to the well for this play, as I’m confident the Reds will cover the run line for the 9th time in their 10th game against the Pirates this season. The Pirates in road games have now become the worst run line cover team in baseball, and have no answer for the Reds as the run differential between the clubs has grown to plus-55 in favor of Cincinnati.
The steady stream of right-handed starters for the Reds to torment continues today so I expect another easy win, but with the juice creeping up I want to tie this into a parlay for a better return.
MLB Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-340): 3:10 PM CT on MLB Network
This game is like the free space on your bingo card, and it’s lined that way with one of the biggest moneylines I’ve seen in baseball. The LA Dodgers actually need a win here to split the crosstown series this season, and with this pitching matchup, I’m confident they will.
Teams simply don’t score against Walker Buehler, owner of a 1.40 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over his last 7 starts. And good luck against him in day games like we have here, as he’s posted a 0.47 ERA and 3-0 record in those contests. The Los Angeles Angels counter with Reid Detmers making the second start of his life after a rough first go-around, and facing the Dodgers lineup likely won’t help.
The only thing you can do with an inflated moneyline like this is parlay it, so I’ll count on the Dodgers to get another win behind their ace and close this parlay.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 351-246 ATS (+90.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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