Locks
MLB (1 Unit) NY Yankees/KC Royals First 5 Innings Under 5.5 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports KC
I’ve seen absolutely no reason to trust this New York Yankees lineup even after adding pieces at the trade deadline, and that’s a big reason I see a low-scoring start to this game.
They’re still struggling against right-handed pitchers, which they’ll see tonight when the Kansas City Royals send Carlos Hernandez to the mound. And one of those pieces added by trade to help against righties, Anthony Rizzo, is on the COVID list. Hernandez is fresh off two consecutive dominant starts against the Chicago White Sox lineup, and I see that momentum carrying over to the early stages of this game.
Jameson Taillon has been excellent for the Yankees lately as well, posting a 1.46 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his last 6 starts, plus he’s already had a dominant start against the Royals this season. That game, as with all 3 between these teams this season, stayed under this total in the first 5 innings. I also want no part of either bullpen in this game, so I’ll isolate the starting pitching to hold the first 5 innings under.
MLB (1 Unit) Freddy Peralta Over 7.5 K’s (+105): 7:05 PM CT on Marquee Sports
My eyes got wide when I saw this number, and then even wider when I saw the plus juice on the over.
At first glance, and with just a shallow dive into his stats, this number looks to be lined appropriately since Freddy Peralta averages 7.3 strikeouts per appearance this season. But there are several factors at play here that should push him over this prop total, the first of which is his dominance against the Chicago Cubs.
Peralta is averaging 8.25 K’s per appearance against the Cubs this season and is posting 1.57 K’s per inning as opposed to his season average of 1.35 per inning. He’s also never gone more than 6 innings against the Cubbies, but given the decimated and overworked bullpen of the Milwaukee Brewers, I think he’s asked to go longer tonight.
And with the star hitters of the Cubs having been shipped out of town since Peralta last faced them, he should have an even easier time racking up the punchouts against weaker bats that just struck out 15 times per game over the weekend. All those factors and a plus-juice return here has me loving this prop.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 353-246 ATS (+91.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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