The Twins have hit a rough patch lately but are still hoping to avoid going into the deadline as sellers. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey explained his thinking to members of the press this week, including Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune and Matthew Leach of MLB.com.
“[Selling is] not my focus right now by any means,” Falvey said. “I think when you think you have the team that you believe you have, and you hope you get healthier and get guys back here soon, that you feel like this group … is capable of putting together good baseball, it’s hard for you to think like that.” Falvey did leave the door open to a later pivot, however. “If we have to cross that bridge, we’ll cross that bridge later, but that is not at all our focus right now. It’s to figure out how to get this team right back to where it needs to be.”
The Twins have proven to be one of the least consistent teams in the majors this year. They were 13-18 at the end of April but bounced back with a 13-game win streak in May, eventually posting an 18-8 record that month. However, they’ve now slid back down with a deadful 6-16 showing in June so far.
They gives them a record of 37-42 overall. They’re not totally buried, currently sitting 4.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. However, they would need to leapfrog six clubs to get into postseason position. FanGraphs gives them a 20.4% of getting into the playoffs with Baseball Prospectus at 26.8%.
That puts them in a notable position with the deadline just over a month away. If their current slump continues, their outlook will obviously worsen. Whereas another 13-game win streak or anything close to that would push them in the opposite direction.
If the Twins are in a position to add, starting pitching would be a natural target as they recently lost both Pablo López and Zebby Matthews to shoulder strains. Rather than wait until the deadline, it seems the Twins were close to adding to their rotation recently, but the commonality of pitching injuries also hurt them indirectly.
“Pitching depth is not a phrase that’s real to me,” Falvey said. “Every time you think you have some, it gets thinned. Even when we had a couple injuries, there was a team that felt like they had some pitching depth and we had a brief trade conversation, ‘Hey, could we pick off some?’ And they were open to it. Within 72 hours, there were two different pitching injuries on that team that ultimately peeled them back from the market.”
This seems highly likely to be a reference to Paul Blackburn of the Mets. Shortly after López and Matthews hit the injured list, it was reported that the Mets were fielding trade interest in Blackburn, on account of their relative rotation surplus. But as that report came out, Kodai Senga got injured and then Tylor Megill followed him to the IL a few days later.
The Twins currently have a rotation mix consisting of Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa. Ideally, that group would have stepped up when López and Matthews landed on the shelf but that hasn’t been the case. Ober has been effective at times but has an unsightly 8.51 ERA in June. It’s a similar story for Paddack, who had a 6.11 ERA this month. Woods Richardson is at 5.06 for the year and Festa at 6.39.
Over the next month, the club’s record will obviously be an important factor to watch, but so will the starting group. It’s possible that Matthews is back with the club prior to the deadline while López could be making some progress towards a return. The guys currently on the roster could, of course, improve their results over the coming weeks.
If the club struggles in the next few weeks, then pivoting into sell mode will have to be a consideration. Players like Paddack, Willi Castro, Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe and Ty France are impending free agents and would garner interest. They would also surely get calls on players with a bit more control such as Ryan Jeffers, Jhoan Durán, Trevor Larnach and others.
If the club is able to go into the deadline as buyers, a classic baseball trade is a possibility. “It feels like in light of 12 out of 15 American League teams [being in contention], you sometimes have to evaluate need-for-need stuff at the Major League level,” Falvey said. “They’re harder to pull off, admittedly. No one likes to trade from depth at their big league level. But if we find the right opportunity overlap, we have to be open-minded to that. I don’t think it’s a likely path because you don’t see it that often. But I think we have to at least have those conversations and be open-minded to it.”
The Twins have a number of intriguing players who are currently putting up good numbers in Triple-A, including Edouard Julien, Austin Martin and Emmanuel Rodriguez. It’s also possible that Royce Lewis could be back from the IL before the deadline, with Luke Keaschall potentially making progress as well. Perhaps the Twins could consider trading players like Castro, Bader, France or others even if they are still in the race, if they felt they could add some pitching while still having a good amount of position player talent.
Money is another noteworthy factor for a team without huge spending capacity like the Twins. Falvey addressed that situation but noted that it’s still very much up in the air, like everything else with the club. “If we get close to the deadline and have decisions to make, I’m always bringing those to the Pohlad family, to Joe [Pohlad, primary owner] and saying ’I think this is the right baseball decision for us or not.’ We’ve had plenty of opportunity to have those conversations and had opportunities to add when it’s the right fit. I feel confident I’ll be able to have those conversations again; where they land, and what they are, I can’t predict that yet.”
Photo courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images