The Twins reliever has run his course.
Once viewed as a potential closer for the Twins, Jorge Alcala may be out of time to prove his value.
After last night’s blowup, Alcala has allowed 38 runs in his last 44 innings of work, going back to his decline in the second half of 2024. His 8.88 ERA is the worst in baseball among 364 players with at least 20 innings pitched, while his home run rate, walk rate, WHIP, FIP, and SIERA all lie in the bottom 25. He’s just been flat-out terrible.
It’s not just that he’s been bad, it’s that he can’t even manage low-leverage innings. Entering the game in a blowout, the main thing you want your pitcher to do is pound the strike zone and eat innings. Alcala’s two most recent outings have shown he’s incapable of that. He was only able to get a single out while allowing four runs on Saturday. He pitched longer yesterday, but that was largely because Rocco Baldelli hung him out to dry.
All of the above should make him worthy of a demotion, but MLB’s service time rules complicate things. While Alcala has minor league options remaining, he’s also accrued over three years of service time, meaning he is allowed to reject a minor league assignment in favor of free agency. That means the front office would have to do their least favorite thing: release a player.
The Derek Falvey-led front office has been notorious for hanging onto veterans too long. Joey Gallo, Matt Shoemaker, Joe Smith, Jake Cave, Dylan Bundy, etc. all overstayed their welcomes by the time the Twins moved on. There’s nothing wrong with taking gambles on players like this, but you have to be ready to part ways when the experiment fails. Frankly, Alcala’s $1.5 million guaranteed contract could also be holding the front office back. With the payroll pushed to its limits and a team sale theoretically still underway, Falvey may be hoping someone has interest in Alcala as a change-of-scenery trade candidate.
There’s plenty of evidence Alcala has gotten unlucky. His expected ERA is only 3.99, around league average and nearly five full runs below his actual 8.88 ERA. Though, his FIP and xFIP paint a less rosy picture at 5.42 and 4.64, respectively. His fastball and slider are still very strong pitches when he’s hitting his spots. But the Twins need bullpen arms they can rely on, especially with the short starts they’ll likely have to endure in the wake of injuries to Pablo Lopez and Zebby Matthews.
Jorge Alcala could still become a spectacular reliever, but his time in Minnesota has run its course. At this point, the Twins don’t need spectacular; they need reliable.