Pablo Lopez suffered a Grade 2 strain of his right teres major muscle in early June, and the Twins right-hander has now missed a little over 10 weeks of action. This puts him within the projected 8-to-12 week timeline initially attached to his recovery, and Lopez has steadily been taking steps towards a September return, including five bullpen sessions and a simulated inning. The next step comes tomorrow, as Lopez told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Minneapolis Star Tribune) that he’ll face live hitters for the first time over two simulated innings.
Should all go well on Friday, Lopez will advance to a Spring Training-esque schedule of an additional inning every five or six days. It can be assumed a minor league rehab assignment will be part of this plan given how much time Lopez has missed, but is aiming to be back in Minnesota’s rotation by early September.
Since the Twins had a virtual fire sale of their roster at the trade deadline and only faintly remain in wild card contention, it isn’t likely that Lopez will be returning to any meaningful games. However, Lopez isn’t at all considering a shutdown, as he is intent on making “four or five, maybe six starts” in what remains of the 2025 campaign.
“Because time allows, I want to do it. Also, peace of mind,” Lopez said. “I want to be able to tell myself I was able to come back from this injury and pitch and perform at the level I know I can perform.”
Between this shoulder strain and a minimal 15-day absence due to a hamstring strain in April, Lopez has been limited to only 60 2/3 innings this season. This injury-riddled year has interrupted a string of workhorse performances for Lopez, who tossed 559 1/3 IP over the 2022-24 seasons — the seventh-highest innings total of any pitcher in baseball over that three-season span.
The righty also posted a 3.83 ERA over that span, and the bottom-line results were even sharper this year since Lopez had a 2.82 ERA across his 60 2/3 frames in 2025. The Twins were already impressed enough by Lopez’s first season in Minnesota to sign the righty to a four-year, $73.5MM extension in April 2023 that covers the 2024-27 seasons. He is set to earn $21.5MM in each of the 2026 and 2027 seasons.
Speculatively speaking, it is worth wondering if Lopez and the Twins could be viewing any September starts as an audition for potential trade suitors. Lopez and Byron Buxton are Minnesota’s highest-paid players now that Carlos Correa has been dealt to the Astros, and Buxton has already made it clear that he won’t be waiving his no-trade protection. That leaves Lopez as the most natural candidate for a trade if the Twins continue to explore payroll cuts, and a few more outings in 2025 would also provide some evidence for rival teams that Lopez is fully healthy. Since the Twins explored trading the less-expensive Joe Ryan at the deadline, it stands to reason that they would also be open to moving a pricier rotation option in Lopez, though naturally the front office would want a significant return rather than just a salary dump.
Wednesday’s surprising news that the Pohlad family was abandoning plans to sell the team threw another curveball into what has been a tumultuous few weeks for the organization. It is possible the addition of two new minority owners has provided enough of a cash influx that payroll cuts are no longer a priority, yet we’ll have to wait until the offseason to see how things truly play out, and what types of rebuild-or-reload moves president of baseball operations Derek Falvey will be considering.