The Twins conducted a complete fire sale at the trade deadline this year as they shipped 11 players off their big league roster, but one significant player who stayed in place was ace right-hander Pablo Lopez. The talented righty was limited to just 14 starts this season by a hamstring strain and a shoulder strain before his season came to an end in September due to a forearm strain.
The fact of Lopez’s injury-marred season left the Twins unable to move him at the deadline this year when they purged the majority of their veteran players, but that doesn’t mean a deal can’t be made this offseason. After all, the aforementioned forearm strain that ended his season came with “no concern” regarding Lopez’s UCL or elbow, and all indications point to him being expected to have a normal offseason and be ready for the 2026 campaign. What’s more, Lopez was nothing short of excellent when healthy this year as he pitched to a 2.79 ERA with a 3.19 FIP in 75 2/3 innings of work.
That’s the sort of top-of-the-rotation potential that contending teams will want to bring in desperately this winter, and the Twins could stand to benefit from trading Lopez during an offseason where there are few free agents who offer much certainty. Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, and Framber Valdez all had tough years that didn’t quite reach their typical standards, while Brandon Woodruff and Shane Bieber face health-related questions after seasons coming off major surgery. Lopez has his own flaws, of course, including his array of recent injuries and a pedestrian 4.08 ERA as recently as last year. Even so, the uncertainty surrounding this crop of free agent starters can only serve to make Lopez more attractive by comparison.
It’s unclear what the Twins’ payroll capacity or competitive expectations for 2025 are, but if the team embarks on a lengthy rebuild it would make little sense to hold onto the final two years and $43.5MM left on the Lopez’s contract. Young arms like Mick Abel, Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, and David Festa are all likely to compete for a spot in the rotation. Holdovers Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober will surely be in the rotation (unless they’re traded themselves), and Kendry Rojas could be ready for the majors at some point next year as well. That deep group of young rotation pieces makes Lopez a bit more expendable to the Twins than he would be for most teams, at least if they aren’t expecting to compete next year.
Given the fact that Lopez would surely bring back a hefty return on the trade market and the depth the Twins currently enjoy in their rotation, using the right-hander to infuse more offensive talent into the club’s roster would make a lot of sense. With that being said, it’s worth noting that the Twins actually still have some notable talent on paper. Lopez, Ryan, and Ober could form a front three in the rotation that many contenders in the league would be jealous of. Star outfielder Byron Buxton has been healthier of late and has the offensive ability to be an anchor for a playoff lineup. Players like Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner have shown impressive ceilings despite their inconsistency, while young bats like Brooks Lee and Luke Keaschall could take a big step forward. It’s not impossible to imagine a viable offensive core coming together as soon as next year, especially if top prospects like Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins can contribute at some point.
Of course, even with those positives the Twins would need to significantly invest in the team in order to build a real contender for 2026. RosterResource estimates the club’s current payroll for 2026 to fall into the range of $95MM, and while that leaves around $40MM in budget space relative to the 2025 club’s payroll it’s an open question how much of that (if any) will actually be reinvested into the major league club given the clear financial motivations behind this summer’s Correa trade.
The Twins would need serious help in the bullpen in order to compete after losing Griffin Jax, Louis Varland, and Jhoan Duran at the deadline, and players like Kody Clemens and Austin Martin starting regularly at first base and in left field wouldn’t exactly inspire confidence either. If the front office is facing substantial financial constraints that weren’t in place this time last year, there may be an argument for moving Lopez even if they do want to compete next year. After all, his $21.75MM salary could then be reinvested into the offense or bullpen, both of which have much less depth than the rotation does at present.
How do MLBTR readers view the situation? Should the Twins trade Lopez this offseason, either in hopes of reallocating his salary to other parts of the roster or as part of a full-scale rebuild? Or should they keep their ace in the fold to give themselves the best shot of winning next year? Have your say in the poll below:
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