The Twins ended the 2024 season with a bitterly disappointing slump in September that pushed them out of the playoff picture at the very end of the year. Budget constraints forced them to follow that up with a generally very quiet offseason, however, and they entered 2025 with mostly the same team as last year aside from a few small additions like Danny Coulombe and Harrison Bader. Given that lackluster offseason, perhaps it’s not a shock that the Twins are currently 40-44, four games out of the final AL Wild Card spot and 12.5 games back of the Tigers in the AL Central.
Minnesota would have to leapfrog five clubs in the standings just to secure a Wild Card berth. On the other hand, they have a 25.6% chance at making it to the postseason, according to Fangraphs, with a roster that looks quite intimidating on paper. Injuries to Pablo Lopez and Zebby Matthews are certainly frustrating, but even without those pieces, the Twins have a solid-looking roster. The offense is centered around a pair of stars in Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa who are complemented by the likes of Willi Castro, Bader, and Ryan Jeffers. The rotation features a legitimate front-of-the-rotation arm in Joe Ryan, and the bullpen is anchored by an excellent dynamic duo of Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax.
Unfortunately, the cracks in the roster quickly begin to show up when you look at the roster’s performance this year. While Buxton has been as much of a star as advertised, Correa has been a below-average hitter this year with a 93 wRC+ after a brutal start to the season. He’s hit more like himself in recent weeks, but continues to show a concerning lack of power. Matt Wallner was unable to sustain a hot start, Brooks Lee hasn’t been the hitter Minnesota was hoping for, and a handful of expected contributors are languishing in Triple-A due to poor performance. The rotation has nothing concrete behind Ryan, with even Bailey Ober posting an ERA north of 5.00 on the year. And despite possessing the second-best bullpen in baseball by FIP, the unit’s 4.32 ERA is well below average.
That leaves the Twins as one of the many teams stuck between buying and selling as July kicks off. It’s not too difficult to imagine a return to form from Correa and better results from a bullpen with excellent underlying numbers being enough to pull Minnesota back above .500, or at least stop them from falling out of the race completely until Lopez and Matthews eventually return. All of that reason is sound enough, and it’s surely played into comments from president of baseball operations Derek Falvey last week that indicated selling is not something the team is “focusing on” at this point.
For a team that could be just a starting pitcher or two away from a second-half surge, buying and hoping to get into the dance understandably holds some appeal. Correa and Buxton aren’t getting any younger, after all, and key pieces like Lopez, Duran, and Ryan are all slated to reach free agency following the 2027 season. With only three pennant races to go until the Twins will need to make some major changes, a sell-off this summer could leave the team with little reason for optimism headed into the final years of their stars’ prime seasons.
On the other hand, the Twins already suffered one painful collapse last year and have limited resources due to financial constraints placed by ownership. A sale of the team could be in the works, and it could be argued that, between the number of potential contenders jockeying for a seat at the table in the AL and the very limited supply of clear sellers this summer, the Twins would be better off selling some of their pieces and regrouping for the future, when they figure to have more certainty on an ownership level.
Young pieces like Lee, Wallner, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, all have years to go before free agency. The arrivals of players like Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins should help the lineup make up for the eventual declines of Correa and Buxton. It’s certainly possible to make an argument that the Twins are set up relatively well for the future, and a few savvy sell-side moves could keep their theoretical window of contention open for much longer. Adding another top prospect or two to the mix alongside Jenkins and Rodriguez could keep the team relevant for years to come.
Of course, another possibility would be to split the difference and do a bit of both. Perhaps rental players like Castro and Coulombe are dangled and replaced internally, while the team uses some of its controllable depth to acquire a starter or two. That sort of balanced approach could make plenty of sense, as could the approach teams like the Cubs and Pirates took to the deadline last year where they added controllable, longer-term assets like Isaac Paredes and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to simultaneously improve the current club while also building for the future.
How do MLBTR readers think the Twins should approach this deadline? Should they trust the team they’ve constructed to make up for last year’s collapse and add? Should they take advantage of a potential seller’s market and see what they can get for some of their best pieces? Or should they take the middle road and do a bit of both? Have your say in the poll below:
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