It’s time to ask the hard hitting questions.
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The draft, home run derby, and All-Star game come and gone which means hot stove season is officially underway. The Kansas City Royals got things started early by acquiring Adam Frazier this morning, signaling a willingness to buy despite being three games under .500. In a similar spot in the standings, the Twins face the same question.
On the one hand, the fact that the Twins were one competent offensive performance away from being .500 at the break is a minor miracle. Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan, Willi Castro, and the Big Five relievers (Duran, Jax, Varland, Stewart, Coulombe) have been spectacular, but nearly every other player has either underperformed, gotten hurt, or both. Though the fault mainly lies with two players: Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis.
Correa has rebounded from his horrendous start, but was still worth in 1.0 fWAR in the first half while his strikeout and chase rates skyrocketed alongside a plummeting walk rate and dearth of home runs. Those are warning signs for sharp decline once players have been around as long as Correa. Lewis, meanwhile, has been pretty good since returning from his latest IL stint but still has only two home runs and a worse OPS and wRC+ than Edouard Julien, who was demoted to AAA two months ago.
All this is important context for the trade deadline because there’s little the Twins can do if Correa and Lewis don’t start hitting like mid-order bats. Given the financial realities of the team and the (hopeful) pending sale, the Twins aren’t going to be able to take back the big salaries of players like Sandy Alcantara or Mitch Keller. They might even need some financial relief to acquire the relatively modest salaries of Ryan O’Hearn or Josh Naylor. While it’s possible the Twins could try to shed the salary of someone like Christian Vazquez, the more likely scenario would be the Twins paying a premium in prospect capital to have other teams foot the bill.
The alternative would be a light, retooling sell of pending free agents and maybe one of Jax or Duran. Castro, Coulombe, Harrison Bader, and Chris Paddack are all free agents at season’s end and could fetch moderate returns. The real prize would be the relievers, either of whom would be the best available arm at the trade deadline.
While the Twins would have no qualms keeping Jax and Duran around, relievers are incredibly fickle and those two are about to enter year two of arbitration, when things start to get expensive. Additionally, the emergence of Louie Varland and Cole Sands as other late-inning options makes Duran/Jax expendable without really eating into your long term plans. Either one of Jax or Duran could slot in as closer for a contender and fit right in, while still being controllable for two additional seasons. Derek Falvey and Twins could get a haul for a player who provides much less value than someone like Joe Ryan, who Falvey is insistent is not going anywhere.
There’s legitimate arguments for either direction and it’s important to note that the Twins have done next to nothing at the past two trade deadlines. However, I think standing pat would be the worst of both worlds. Either lean in or re-tool with an eye toward 2026.
Should the Twins pay a premium and buy at the deadline to push for the postseason? Or trade away the pending free agents and maybe an additional reliever while hoping for a 2024 Tigers-esque run?