Twins Trade Candidate Tiers - Minnesota Sports Today

Minnesota Twins v Colorado Rockies — Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

The Twins are primed to be sellers at the trade deadline. Who is most likely to be off the team when August 1 rolls around?

After the Byron Buxton cycle game last week, I mentioned that Buxton might single-handedly keep the Twins from being sellers. Despite his best efforts, the Twins have lost four of five out of the break including two against the historically bad Colorado Rockies. The signs are clear now and the Twins will, at a minimum, be trading away their pending free agents.

Let’s take a look at the Twins top trade candidates and break down the likelihood of trading all the players you’ll hear endless rumors about for the next week.

Tier 1: Good Players on Expiring Contracts

Willi Castro
Harrison Bader
Danny Coulombe

Even if the Twins never lose another game before the trade deadline, these three will be on different teams come August 1. Castro and Bader should fetch the best returns as either one should slot in as everyday players for contenders with plenty of defensive versatility. Coulombe’s return will be minimal, but every contender will ask about him. Everyone in this group has probably priced themselves out of the Twins’ market anyway, so no reason to hang on to them now.

Tier 2: Bad Players on Expiring Contracts

Chris Paddack
Christian Vazquez
Ty France

If you want them, they’re all yours! Even if you don’t want them, the Twins may cut them to free up playing time as players like Luke Keaschall, Pablo Lopez, and Bailey Ober return from injury and the Twins pivot toward evaluating players for 2026 and beyond.

Tier 3: Good Players with Team Control

Trevor Larnach
Ryan Jeffers
Brock Stewart
Justin Topa

Assuming the pending free agents get traded away, I would still describe trading one or two of this group as a soft sell. Larnach has been excellent against righties by has almost no defensive value. With Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins fairly close, the Twins may need want to explore freeing up future ABs. Jeffers is probably the least likely to be traded away for no other reason than the Twins have very few catching options in the high minors, unless they think Mickey Gasper can actually stick behind the plate.

Tier 4: Change of Scenery Candidates

Edouard Julien
Jose Miranda
Austin Martin
Kody Funderburk

This group may have run their course in Minneapolis and could be good candidates for other non-contending teams looking to take a flyer. They’ll be cheap to acquire if someone wants them, but the Twins won’t be actively shopping them with their trade value relatively low.

This will also be my line of demarkation. Anyone below here, I would be fairly surprised (even if it’s a pleasant surprise) to see them traded.

Tier 5: Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran, Joe Ryan

Griffin Jax
Jhoan Duran
Joe Ryan

These three are the players that other teams will try their hardest to pry away from the Twins. I would put the likelihood of Jax and Duran being traded way ahead of Ryan. Relievers are fickle and things can turn south quickly, whereas Ryan has been one of the best and most consistent starters in baseball for the last three seasons. Even if the Twins were in contention, I would be a proponent for selling high on one of Jax or Duran and maximizing the value for the Twins long term. Louie Varland has been a revelation since moving to the ‘pen and the Twins have a penchant for turning failed starters into some of the best relievers in baseball.

Given Ryan’s excellence, he’ll be significantly harder to get out of Minnesota. There’s been a rumored Jarren Duran/Joe Ryan swap that Red Sox fans and media have been pushing, but it’s a move that doesn’t make much sense for either team. If Boston is aggressive, I think Derek Falvey would start the conversation by asking for Roman Anthony, the top prospect in baseball who is already hitting well for the Red Sox and under team control for five more seasons. That’s the type of return that would be needed.

His fastball shape and deceptive, low-effort delivery make me want to explore a long-term extension with him rather than trade him away. Ryan should age very well as he gets into his 30s and can be a cornerstone piece for the rotation. As soon as a new owner is in place and Falvey has a clear budget, I would make this a priority.

Tier 6: Injured Stars and Underwater Contracts

Pablo Lopez
Bailey Ober
Royce Lewis
Carlos Correa

It’s possible this time next year that Correa’s contract once again looks like an incredibly team-friendly deal for a player of his caliber, but as it stands he’s come nowhere close to the value. The Twins would likely have to eat money in order to trade him away, which they simply won’t do. It’s more valuable to hope Correa starts looking like his old self.

If Pablo and Ober were healthy, we’d be hearing just as many trade rumors as there have been for Ryan, but injuries will limit the return and trading them now would be sell-low moves. The Twins also aren’t undergoing a big rebuild, meaning they want their staff leader around in Lopez. As for Lewis, it would be selling low but maybe a team would pay above-market value for a player who is still only 26, under team control through 2028, and shown flashes of brilliance when healthy.

Tier 7: The Future Core (hopefully)

Matt Wallner
Brooks Lee
Luke Keaschall
Louie Varland
Zebby Matthews
David Festa
Simeon Woods Richardson

Everyone here is still pre-arbitration and should be a big part of the next Twins core along with their current top prospects like Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Kaelen Culpepper. If they were to be traded, it would be much more likely to happen in the offseason as part of a bigger move. Wallner is probably the most tradable of anyone here thanks to his age and streaky approach at the plate, but that will also limit his return in a potential trade.

Tier 8: Twin for Life

Byron Buxton

I’ve had various people around the SBNation universe ask if they think Buxton could be pried away for the right price. I’ll tell them, you, and anyone else that asks: it doesn’t matter. Buxton is one of the best players in baseball on a ridiculously team-friendly contract with a full no-trade clause. Even if Derek Falvey got someone to agree to a Juan Soto-esque return, Buxton isn’t going anywhere. To quote Buck himself: “I have a no-trade clause… I’m a Twin for life.”