What position will the team take with their first pick?
Interesting article on what strategy to utilize when drafting.
https://overthecap.com/nfl-drafting-strategies#google_vignette
The first thing I did was go back to 2020 and look at the top 20 contracts at every position in the NFL. I then determined of those top 20 players how many of those players were available in free agency when they signed their most recent contract. This can give us a strong indication of good veteran players who a team can “buy” to become a starter.
The second thing is to look at the contractual benefit that exists if we hit on a player in the draft. To do this I looked at what the 16th pick in the NFL draft will cost (about $4 million a year) and what annual savings that would provide over the 10th highest paid player at each position in 2024.
For whatever reason I think we have a hard time grasping the concept that sometimes drafting the “best available player” based on traditional scouting grades does not always equal building the best 53 man roster. When we discuss tight end vs wide receiver for instance the draft decision has a major bearing on the overall quality of the roster. If I draft a tight end at $4 million a year my team is saving about $8 million a year in salary cap charges if he hits. With that $8 million the team can buy someone like Zay Jones, Hollywood Brown, or Robert Woods.
If I draft the wide receiver and he hits I will save about $19 million. With that $19 million I can purchase someone like a Dalton Schultz or Noah Fant and still have $9 million or so to spend to maybe sign someone like Andre James at center or Blake Cashman at linebacker. You get more access to talent by selecting the premium position even if that player doesn’t grade as highly.
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Bottom line: It is OK to draft a guard in the first round now that the top salaries have climbed into the 20M bracket.
Minnesota Vikings News and Links
What is the Vikings’ draft strategy with limited resources?
The Minnesota Vikings’ draft outlook can be boiled down to one sentence: The NFL’s oldest team in 2024 has the league’s fewest resources to get younger in 2025.
The deficit is self-inflicted and largely the result of two trades the Vikings made last season to acquire linebacker Dallas Turner. But it is also a trend that spans multiple years. If they make their four picks as scheduled next week, the Vikings will have totaled 27 draft selections since general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s arrival in 2022 — tied for the second-lowest total in the NFL during that span.
“These are things that we’ve planned out over the course of the past couple years and feel confident about,” Adofo-Mensah said on Thursday.
Adofo-Mensah has already dipped into his 2026 pool as well, having traded away likely fourth-round and sixth-round picks to acquire left tackle Cam Robinson and running back Cam Akers last season, respectively. Neither remain with the team.
It begs the question: What should be made of the Vikings’ unusual approach to the draft, which NFL teams consider the lifeblood of roster building? The situation, and Minnesota’s larger draft performance over the previous three seasons, is a matter of great weight within the team facility.
Their roster also had the highest average age based on weighted snaps, and that ranking is unlikely to change after they signed or re-signed five likely starters this spring who are 30 years old or older.
Adofo-Mensah believes that his free agent activity has opened options in the draft, stressing Thursday his desire to “be in a place where we’re proactive, not reactive; impact-focused, not need-focused.” But drafts are filled with uncertainty, and the odds of finding impact players increases based on the total number of players selected.
That puts Adofo-Mensah’s 2024 draft decisions under scrutiny. The Vikings first sent the Houston Texans their second- and sixth-round picks in 2024, and a second-round pick in 2025, to acquire the No. 23 overall pick. Then they used a 2024 fifth-round pick along with third- and fourth-rounders in 2025 to swap No. 23 for No. 17 with the Jacksonville Jaguars. (They also received a 2024 seventh-round pick back from the Texans.)
In total, it took six draft picks to acquire Turner, calculated by ESPN Analytics, roughly double the value of the No. 17 pick alone.
At the time, Adofo-Mensah joked about tossing aside his analytics background as a “spreadsheet and calculator guy.” Sometimes, he said, “you’ve got to step out from there, take your Clark Kent glasses off and just have a championship mindset and swing for a great player.”
Turner’s playing time as a rookie was blocked by two Pro Bowl edge rushers, Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel. Turner played 26.8% of snaps, a rate lower than 52 other defensive rookies in the NFL last season.
Asked to revisit the approach Thursday, Adofo-Mensah said he had no regrets. He said he acquired the No. 23 pick to avoid a “gun-to-the-head moment” on draft day as the Vikings attempted to ensure they could draft a quarterback. When they didn’t need that pick to secure quarterback J.J. McCarthy at No. 10, Adofo-Mensah said he focused on Turner because he didn’t know if he would be in position in future years to draft a player the team considered so talented.
“I’m pretty tough on myself, I would say,” Adofo-Mensah said. “When you’re trying for self-improvement, holding yourself to that standard, we all have that little voice that says, ‘we’re good enough.’ And I’m not scared of questioning that voice every now and, again, to be really hard on myself. But I know exactly why we did those things at the time.
“Ultimately, we don’t know how that answer’s going to work out, but looking back on it, we feel good about that exact approach and that thought process.”
Aaron Rodgers undecided, confirms ‘good communication’ with Vikings’ Kevin O’Connell
Rodgers confirmed he’s talked with Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell, but he denied a recent report that says he pitched the Vikings on being a mentor for quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
“There’s been a lot of narratives that have not been anywhere near accurate. Starting with the Jets, continuing with something I just read about me pitching something to the Vikings,” Rodgers explained. “That’s not accurate either. I’m sure there’s a lot of sentiment from Packers fans, s***, maybe even Vikings fans about certain things, but no, I’ve known Kevin forever. I’ve known Kevin O’Connell since we used to work out [together in San Diego]. I’ve known him for 17-18 years and we’ve got a good friendship. We talk outside of just this offseason. We keep in touch during the season, so we’ve had good communication.”
Why hasn’t Rodgers signed with anyone yet?
“I’m in a different phase of my life. I’m 41 years old. I’m in a serious relationship. I have off the field stuff going on that requires my attention,” Rodgers said. “I have a couple people in my inner-inner circle who are really battling some difficult stuff. I have a lot of things that are taking my attention away from football, and that’s where I’ve been focusing most of my attention.”
As for all of the rumors, Rodgers says most of them are “bulls***.”
“There’s been a lot of people assuming they have information about me. That’s just not true,” he said. “I’ve been straight up with these teams from the start about where I was at, starting with the money thing. I’ve told every single one of these teams I’ve talked to, it ain’t about the money. I’ll play for [$10 million]. I don’t care.”
“I wasn’t stringing anyone along. I wasn’t holding anybody hostage,” Rodgers added. “I’m open to anything and attached to nothing, so yeah, retirement could still be a possibility. But right now, my focus has been and will continue to be on my personal life.”
Rodgers admitted that he’s still in contact with Tomlin, and he said his throwing session with wide receiver D.K. Metcalf was part of his process of doing “due diligence” on the Steelers. When asked by McAfee if the Steelers are the most likely destination if he chooses to play next season, Rodgers reiterated that his personal life is his focus right now.
“I am trying to be open to everything and not specifically attached to anything when it comes to this decision. I’m not holding anybody hostage, I really want to emphasize that,” Rodgers said. “I’m just going through a lot in my personal life that has to take precedent at this point. Because that’s a big commitment and when the commitment is made, it has to be an all-in type commitment.”
Russini on Aaron Rodgers and the Vikings: ‘I think there’s still more to be told’
While she isn’t beating the Rodgers-to-Minnesota drum like she was in March and early April, insider Dianna Russini doesn’t seem convinced that Rodgers isn’t waiting for the Vikings to come calling.
“He said that he wasn’t waiting for Minnesota. Oh, OK. OK, we’ll see,” Russini said on Scoop City. “I think there’s still more to be told. He can say that, but you can say one thing and then you can do another. Let’s see what happens in the spring.”
However, Russini also thinks retirement is more of an option than she originally thought.
“I think retirement is probably bigger than what we’re probably leaning into, based on how he sounded,” Russini said.
While explaining that she doesn’t “necessarily think [Rodgers] believes the Steelers are a team that can win the Super Bowl,” co-host Chase Daniel interrupted, asking her if she thinks it’s Vikings or bust for Rodgers.
“Again, I have a hard time imaging he’s saying no if [Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is] calling him, going, ‘Come be a Minnesota Viking and start for us,’” she answered.
Note: Russini is persistent no?
Another indication the Vikings are interested in Ohio State’s Donovan Jackson
According to insider Aaron Wilson, the Vikings hosted Ohio State guard Donovan Jackson on one of their top-30 visits. It’s unclear when the visit took place, but Wilson noted that Jackson visited his hometown Houston Texans on Wednesday, having previously met with the Vikings, Giants, Eagles, Titans and Raiders.
The connection between Jackson and Minnesota appears to be pretty strong. In fact, ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. posted his final mock draft last week and Jackson is the guy he predicts the Vikings to take. In another mock draft he participated in with colleague Field Yates, Kiper Jr. doubled down by again predicting Jackson to Minnesota.
“Minnesota signed guard Will Fries and center Ryan Kelly away from the Colts. It’s a big improvement on the interior offensive line. Let’s take it a step further. Jackson would replace Blake Brandel at the other guard spot, and he has the versatility to kick outside if needed,” Kiper Jr. wrote in his mock.
“He did so this past season when Josh Simmons got hurt for Ohio State. That seems relevant given left tackle Christian Darrisaw is recovering from a left knee injury. Jackson is a plug-and-play interior blocker with great agility and technique; he allowed four sacks over 40 career starts.”
Jackson was a three-time All-Big Ten First Team selection. We also recently wrote about former Vikings head coach Mike Tice, who was a longtime, respected offensive line coach in the NFL, thinks Jackson is a stud. He even rated him higher than Alabama guard Tyler Booker, who is among the select group invited to the green room for the draft.
“I think this is a can’t-go-wrong player,” Tice said of Jackson on the Football 301 Podcast. “How do you miss on the player like this? This player is going to be a good player in the league for quite a while.”
Dalton Risner: Vikings have shown interest, but ‘only to an extent’
“Minnesota has shown interest in bringing me back, but only to an extent,” Risner said. “They went out and signed a guard (Will Fries) for a lot of money, so it would have to be the other side of the ball, and Blake Brandel’s a heck of a football player. I don’t know what their plan would be with me, but if they’re willing to work with me, I’m willing to work with them because I love Minnesota so much. And that’s saying something. I would not say that for every team.”
Yore Mock
Trade Partner: Jacksonville Jaguars
Sent: Round 3 Pick 33
Received: Round 4 Pick 5, Round 5 Pick 4
…
Trade Partner: Arizona Cardinals
Sent: Round 4 Pick 5
Received: Round 4 Pick 13, Round 5 Pick 14
…
Trade Partner: Dallas Cowboys
Sent: Round 5 Pick 14
Received: Round 5 Pick 33, Round 6 Pick 28
…
24: R1 P24 OT Kelvin Banks – Texas 6’5.1” 315
115: R4 P13 DL C.J. West – Indiana 6’1.1” 316
139: R5 P1 WR Dont’e Thornton – Tennessee 6’4.5” 205
142: R5 P4 S Jonas Sanker – Virginia 6’0.03” 206
171: R5 P33 RB Jordan James – Oregon 5’9.4” 205
187: R6 P11 CB Bilhal Kone – Western Michigan 6’1.2” 190
204: R6 P28 TE Joshua Simon – South Carolina 6’4.1” 239
UDFA
QB Brady Cook – Missouri
RB Lan Larison – UC-Davis
WR LaJohntay Wester – Colorado
TE Jackson Hawes – Georgia Tech
OT Bryce Cabeldue – Kansas
C Jacob Bayer – Arkansas State
DL Warren Brinson – Georgia
EDGE Ethan Downs – Oklahoma
LB Eugene Asante – Auburn
CB Marcus Harris – California
CB Korie Black – Oklahoma State
S Marques Sigle – Kansas State
P James Burnip – Alabama
An alternate no trades draft (if Kwesi only drafts four players, well ….)
24: R1 P24 WR Matthew Golden – Texas
97: R3 P33 OT Ozzy Trapilo – Boston College
139: R5 P1 DL Jamaree Caldwell – Oregon
187: R6 P11 S R.J. Mickens – Clemson
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