It wasn’t always evident that Justin Jefferson would become arguably the best receiver in football. As the 22nd overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft, Jefferson was the fifth receiver in the first round. He was picked behind Henry Ruggs III, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, and Jalen Reagor.
This even came after Jefferson and the LSU Tigers dominated the 2019 college football season, winning the National Championship. Jefferson caught 111 passes for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns. Still, this didn’t make him the consensus No. 1 receiver heading into the draft process.
Jefferson didn’t have a record-setting combined performance, either. He performed well in every workout, but not to the point where he dominated NFL Network and ESPN’s broadcast coverage.
Below are his measurements:
- Height: 6’1″
- Weight: 202 pounds
- Arms: 33″
- Hands: 9 1/8″
Jefferson only participated in four workouts. Below are his results and where they ranked among other receivers in his class:
- 40-yard dash: 4.43 seconds (t-8th)
- 10-yard split: 1.54 seconds (N/A)
- Vertical jump: 37.5″ (t-13th)
- Broad jump: 10’6″ (t-10th)
4.43 40-yard dash
Justin Jefferson ticked every box in Indy.pic.twitter.com/yvL3W53PFw
— PFF College (@PFF_College) March 4, 2020
Next Gen Stats has a score breakdown for each prospect. The model gives composite scores for production and athleticism, ranging from 50 to 99. They then combine these, giving us the following for Jefferson:
- Production: 91 (2nd)
- Athleticism: 79 (12th)
- Overall: 89 (2nd)
Jefferson finished behind Lamb in both production and overall score in the model. Interestingly, Lamb was still the only third receiver in the draft.
Finally, Lance Zeirlein of NFL Media gave his analysis of Jefferson. He gave Jefferson a first-round grade and had a player comp of Greg Jennings. Said Zeurlein of Jefferson’s strengths:
Good initial burst off the snap. Slippery working around traffic and redirection in space. Jab step gives separation from route stem more life. Naturally instinctive pass-catcher. Adjusts speeds to track throws and shield coverage. Makes twisting, twirling mid-air adjustments look easy. Ridiculous catch radius to help a quarterback out. Sharpened catch focus in 2019. Quick hands to stab anticipation throws coming out of breaks. Leaping and length carry him to the high point. Reliable from slot at making “gotta have it” catches to extend drives. Willing to do his part and give effort as slot blocker.
Of Jefferson’s weaknesses:
Spread scheme threw field wide open for him. Needs more attention to detail with his routes. Too complacent to beat coverage with athletic ability. Unable to run away and separate from tight man. Size and strength across from him impede production. Will take time adjusting to press looks as a pro. Limited one-on-one prowess to win 50/50 throws. Separation talent just average outside.
With all this in mind, NFL.com gave Jefferson a 6.46 prospect grade out of 8.00, the sixth-highest tier available on the site, in a tier labeled “will become good starter within two years.” He didn’t take long to become a good starter, either.
Jefferson became one of the top wideouts in the game right away. He caught a then-rookie-record 1,400 yards in 2020. In 2022, he won Offensive Player Of the Year, leading the league with 128 receptions for 1,809 yards and eight touchdowns. He was a First-Team All-Pro for the second time in 2024, helping Sam Darnold to his first Pro Bowl.
The NFL Combine is fun, but setting records for being the fastest or strongest player on the field doesn’t necessarily translate to being a top football player. While Jefferson didn’t break any records, he still had a great showing for himself. As Kevin O’Connell would say, Jefferson was at his best when his best was required.
Still, it’s fun to look back and see how the top players performed in the past and see if we can use that to project prospects better. We’ll probably see some more records fall this week. While this is fun and can put some players on the map, remember that doesn’t mean the player will be the next Justin Jefferson.