Vikings Mandatory Mini-Camp Update

Where things are at as the Vikings start mini-camp

Welcome to Justin Jefferson month as the Vikings celebrate their four-year, $140 million extension of the league’s best wide receiver.

The Vikings also held their mandatory mini-camp this week, and doubtless wanted to have Jets under contract and a participant with new quarterbacks to team up with this year. The Vikings and Dalton Risner agreed to a bargain deal so Risner could be a participant in mini-camp as well.

The Vikings have been busy building competition at every position in preparation for the first mandatory practice of the off-season, and that creates some intrigue for the off-season and into training camp as the Vikings prepare for the upcoming season.

Let’s take a look at where things stand currently, and how they may evolve going forward.

Quarterback Competition

The feedback on the Vikings’ quarterback competition from NFL Insider Tom Pelissero and others has been that the Vikings have been impressed with Sam Darnold so far this off-season. And while reports are that JJ McCarthy is progressing nicely, the expectation is that Darnold will start the season and could potentially start the entire season.

For Darnold, this may well be his best, last chance to prove he can be a quality starter in the league. He comes into a situation where he is the presumed starter (i.e. his job to lose), with the best supporting cast he’s ever had, and being coached by two ex-NFL quarterbacks, including his former mentor as a rookie Josh McCown. Even if the Vikings move on from Darnold next year, this is his chance to prove he can be a quality starter and land that role with another team. But Darnold has looked good in off-season practices and training camp before, only to have that status downgraded once the season begins.

Since Darnold left the Jets, he’s fumbled 18 times, losing 7, in a bit over a season worth of snaps. He also had 17 interceptions during that same span. He also has a fairly high career sack rate. Darnold had a lot of turnovers in college, and those have followed him to the league. Granted he didn’t play for good teams, but he was seen as a bit slow as a processor which caused him to be a bit late with throws at times, which in turn led to turnover-worthy plays and/or sacks. That type of thing isn’t talked about at this time of year, but it will be once the season starts if it turns out to be a continuing issue for Darnold.

But it seems like the plan from the get-go with Darnold, and this may also have been promised to him when they signed him, is that Darnold will be the starter and it will be his job to lose going forward.

The other aspect of Darnold being the clear starter at this point is that JJ McCarthy is currently either 3rd or 4th string at this point (the distinction isn’t relevant), as Darnold and Nick Mullens are playing with the 1s while Jaren Hall and McCarthy are playing with the 2s. The Vikings also are not really featuring McCarthy with the media now, after the draft and rookie minicamp, perhaps to avoid creating the impression that there is a quarterback competition at this point. The other reason is perhaps to keep McCarthy focused on learning the system, getting up to NFL speed, and not force him to give updates on what is likely a steep learning curve at this point- as it would be for any rookie quarterback.

Overall, it seems the Vikings are under no pressure to speed up McCarthy’s development or put him out there before the coaching staff thinks he’s good and ready. Kevin O’Connell has said they have a set of milestones included in McCarthy’s development, and they won’t consider starting him until he completes those milestones. In fact, even if Darnold falters badly early on, it may be either Nick Mullens or Jaren Hall that they’d try before putting McCarthy out there before he’s ready.

In terms of visible progress for McCarthy, the only thing that seems pretty universal among those who’ve watched McCarthy practice so far is that if anything his arm is stronger than he got credit for in the pre-draft process. I did a piece suggesting that could be the case after he was drafted. There is no way to know how McCarthy is progressing against his milestones at this point, but there doesn’t appear to be any rush or priority to have him ready to start week one, nor does it appear that he’s performing well enough yet in practice to really challenge Darnold for the starting job. I had given him a 30% chance of starting week one after he was drafted, but all indications point to it being more like a 10% chance right now. Things can change in training camp, and how things go in training camp, joint practices, and preseason games will certainly have an impact, but right now it seems like McCarthy is more likely to start after the bye week or even next season compared to week one.

Tight End Competition

It appears that the Vikings have prepared for a more extended absence for TJ Hockenson, who is recovering from a late season knee injury, as they currently have a total of eight tight ends on the roster. Speculation that Hockenson may not play for at least a month after the regular season begins- and perhaps not until after the bye week- seems to be growing, despite Hockenson apparently making good progress in his rehab. But the addition of veteran Robert Tonyan Jr., and N’Keal Harry making the move to tight end, along with two other additions, would seem to indicate that the Vikings are expecting to play some games without Hockenson early in the season.

N’Keal Harry mentioned in a press conference this week that Kevin O’Connell approached him about making the move to tight end last season (Harry was on the Vikings practice squad then)- perhaps after Hockenson suffered his knee injury. Harry, who has disappointed as a first-round pick at wide receiver back in 2019 but still just 26 years old, welcomed the opportunity and began training for the position on his own before OTAs began, so he was able to hit the ground running a bit when he moved to tight end once OTAs began.

I did a brief write-up on Harry last year when he was first signed by the Vikings.

Harry was listed as 6’4”, 225 pounds, but now is up to 240 pounds and looks more like a tight end than a wide receiver. He ran a 4.53” 40 coming out with a 38.5” vertical jump. Overall, Harry is a slightly faster and ten-pound lighter version of TJ Hockenson when it comes to physical traits.

Harry’s issue at wide receiver was that although he specialized in making contested catches with good ball skills, he wasn’t fast/quick enough to gain much separation. That may not be as much of an issue matching up against linebackers or strong safeties, however.

Harry has experience playing inside in the slot and also as a blocker, both in college and with the Patriots, who used him at times like a tight end when it came to blocking duties.

Harry is #13 making a block a tight end might be asked to make against a linebacker.

Harry also shows a lot of toughness as a receiver, and knows how to use his body to his advantage against defenders.

Overall, N’Keal Harry looks to be more acclimated to the tasks of being a tight end than most wide receiver to tight end conversion projects and could manage to find a role as a tight end on the depth chart and situational/red zone player that allows him to gain a roster spot. Harry could also increase his value on special teams, where he’s played on the punt block team before in college- and as a returner as well- and could be used on the kick return team under the new rules too.

Robert Tonyan Jr. has been the Standout at TE

However, so far in minicamp it’s been the veteran Robert Tonyan Jr. who has been the standout as a receiving tight end. Alec Lewis with The Athletic reports that Tonyan has had a good minicamp.

However, Tonyan is not a lock to make the roster with only $150K deadcap if he’s cut, and a less than distinguished career according to PFF:

PFF

Johnny Mundt Running with the 1s, No Nick Muse

But despite Tonyan and Harry competing now at tight end, it’s been Johnny Mundt running with the 1s as the receiving tight end (Josh Oliver continues to be the blocking tight end). Mundt, 30, was extended on a one-year, $2 million deal, with $750K guaranteed and therefore the same in deadcap if he were cut. Even that deal is fairly non-commital given that Mundt has played a few years with Kevin O’Connell.

Nick Muse was not at minicamp due to an undisclosed injury. Not a good time for Muse to be away, given the added competition within the group. The Vikings also signed UDFA Trey Knox and acquired former UDFA Sammis Reyes, who hasn’t played a regular season snap since 2021, the year he entered the league.

Ultimately, the Vikings may keep three tight ends on the roster entering the regular season if Hockenson starts the season on IR, along with Josh Oliver. One of those three would then be cut once Hockenson returns from IR. Assuming Knox and Reyes don’t make the roster, that would leave one of Johnny Mundt, Robert Tonyan Jr., N’Keal Harry, and Nick Muse off the roster as well by the final cut at the end of August, with one more cut after Hockenson returns assuming the Vikings keep four tight ends on the roster, as has been customary.

Both ability at tight end and special teams ability may factor into which tight ends are kept, but at this point I wouldn’t be surprised if Nick Muse was the odd man out and placed on practice squad at the start of the regular season. Who is cut when Hockenson returns remains to be seen, but I believe N’Keal Harry will be given the opportunity to complete his transition to tight end and his versatility may prove valuable enough to keep him on the roster.

Early Off-Season Pecking Order

It’s typical in early off-season practices for the Vikings to place veterans familiar with the scheme ahead of others in positions that don’t have an incumbent veteran returning. They need players familiar with the scheme, teammates, and NFL practices to be efficient doing installs and running team drills, even if those players don’t end up being starters later on. Johnny Mundt playing with the 1s makes perfect sense in this regard.

But there are exceptions, and those are usually telling. An obvious example is Sam Darnold. He isn’t familiar with the scheme and teammates, but obviously the Vikings are gearing him up to be the starter in September, rather than go with Nick Mullens, for example, who is familiar with scheme and teammates, etc. Mullens is QB2 right now, however, while JJ McCarthy and Jaren Hall are splitting reps with the 2s.

Left Guard Competition

With that in mind, it’s interesting that even with the return of Dalton Risner, who was the starting left guard last season, Blake Brandel remained LG1 in minicamp. It may be that with Risner only recently being signed that the Vikings decided to keep Brandel, who had been there for OTAs, at LG1, but the nature of each of their contracts would seem to indicate that the Vikings see more potential in Brandel than Risner.

Brandel and Risner have similar base salary + signing bonus contracts for this season, with Risner having more game incentives than Brandel. But Brandel’s contract ramps up in years two and three, while Risner’s was a one-year deal. That suggests that the Vikings expect Brandel to be the longer-term starter at left guard, with Risner providing competition and an insurance policy should Brandel falter this season.

For whatever reason, the league doesn’t view Risner all that highly, as he said he didn’t have much by way of other offers except a low level one from the Vikings, despite having a decent, if not stellar, performance record in the league. This was a banner year for guards signing new contracts, but Risner was not able to take advantage of that trend.

Risner could still end up beating out Brandel for the starting job, but it would seem the Vikings are placing a bigger bet on Brandel being their guy going forward. The reason for that is not immediately apparent by looking at PFF grades or RAS scores. It’s likely more of a coaching decision coming from offensive line coach Chris Kuper, who coached Risner in Denver and with the Vikings. It may be that he thinks Risner (soon to be 29 with many years at left guard) has plateaued while Brandel (27, multiple positions) is ascending. Brandel is also switching from right to left guard this year after playing tackle in previous years.

Cornerback Competition

It’s also telling that newly acquired vet Shaq Griffin is running with the 1s at one of the outside cornerback spots, despite being new and incumbent Akayleb Evans returning. I don’t view that as surprising, however, given that Evans has struggled as a starter and was benched twice late last season by Brian Flores.

It was surprising that according to Judd Zuglad, Byron Murphy Jr. was manning the other outside cornerback position in base defense with the 1s during minicamp. It’s surprising because Kevin O’Connell had said earlier this off-season that their intent was to move Murphy Jr. exclusively inside at slot cornerback, and because Mekhi Blackmon had finished the season starting at that outside cornerback position and did pretty well overall.

Blackmon has had some reps with the 1s at outside cornerback, but it’s not clear he’ll secure that starting job. One interesting development in that regard is that Dwight McGlothern, who had the highest coverage grade among cornerbacks in the FBS last season playing in the SEC, but who the Vikings somehow landed as a UDFA, was given some reps with the 1s in minicamp. He is also being mentored by Murphy Jr.:

It’s interesting that McGlothern is getting the reps with the 1s and not fourth-round pick Khyree Jackson, or Andrew Booth Jr., or anyone else. I haven’t done a breakdown of McGlothern yet, but I will. McGlothern, while just 22, has a lot more starting experience in college than Khyree Jackson, and has shown he can be effective in man, press, and zone coverage. Kevin O’Connell has said that the Vikings intend to play more man coverage this season (they played the second-least percentage of man coverage last season), and so developing cornerbacks with those skillsets would seem to be a priority for the Vikings this off-season.

Other Notes

Judd Zuglad also reported punter Seth Vernon has shown quite a leg in minicamp so far and that incumbent punter Ryan Wright has lost 20 pounds this off-season. Vernon was a UDFA last season who signed with the Falcons, but lost the competition to Bradley Pinion, who was ranked 5th in 2022 and 1st in 2023 by PFF grade. So the fact that Vernon lost that competition may not be much of a strike against him. Wright is coming off a very disappointing sophomore season, so this could be a real competition to watch this off-season.

Alec Lewis is also reporting that safety Theo Jackson and running back Ty Chandler are looking good in minicamp. This may not be much of a surprise- both Jackson and Chandler received good reviews last off-season too- but it appears they are continuing to look good and that their teammates are noticing that as well.

Jalen Nailor missed minicamp due to an illness. Alec Lewis reported that he looked good in OTAs, so his missing minicamp comes as a disappointment. Nailor has looked good generally since being drafted, but missed a lot of time last season with a hamstring injury. He has the potential to be WR3 but needs to stay healthy and prove he’s capable of stepping into that role on a consistent basis.

Looking Ahead

Now that minicamp is in the books, the next thing on the schedule is another round of OTAs. The Vikings restructured their off-season program schedule this year, putting mandatory minicamp in the middle of two OTA periods, rather than last on the schedule as was done in previous years.

This second round of OTAs is reportedly only for younger players up to 3-4 years in the league, rather than more established veterans. Presumably, this will give the coaching staff more time to focus on younger and more depth players. That’s not a bad idea as the Vikings have a lot of young talent on their roster and some of those players could end up in larger roles this season.

Stay tuned.

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