Locks
NFL (1 Unit) Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears -2.5 (-110): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
I keep asking myself why this line is so short despite Chicago’s offensive renaissance the last three weeks, scoring 94 total points. But I think a lot of preseason priors go into setting lines for these two teams, who, for the most part, have shown that they aren’t very good, as was expected. So when they meet, you get a line that is fairly even, which is exactly what happened with the open of 1.5 points. But movement has gone to Chicago and pushed the line here, telling me the Bears are the right side despite them now needing to play the favorite role.
The difference here might come down to old-fashioned home/road splits, and they’re glaringly different for Detroit. This Lions team has shown plenty of offensive brilliance at home, putting up 0.515 points per play, second only to Buffalo in home games. But it craters to 0.153 points per play on the road, second-worst to only the Indianapolis Colts. The knock on Jared Goff seems accurate – he struggles on the road and outdoors, evidenced by him being 0-10-1 straight up in his past 11 road games. So even against a bad Bears defense, I see Detroit struggling, and that should allow Chicago to grab a win and cover here.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans -2.5 (-110): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
Like a boulder on a hill, once Derrick Henry gets rolling, he’s impossible to stop. That’s true both on a micro level of him running over defenders, and a macro level of him finding his groove during the season. The macro version is rounding into form, carrying the Titans to a 5-1 straight up and 6-0 ATS run the past six weeks. And now Tennessee doesn’t have to be as one-dimensional on offense, with quarterback Ryan Tannehill set to return in this game.
His presence will present the small threat of a passing game that was non-existent with Malik Willis filling in, even though Tennessee isn’t the kind of team to throw very much. But it will force Denver to at least respect the potential, and prevent them from stacking the box against King Henry. That was going to be the only hope for a defense that’s 27th in yards per rush attempt allowed, and recently traded their best defensive lineman. That should result in Tennessee being able to control this game enough through Henry to earn the win and cover.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Broncos/Titans Under 39 (-110)
This is tied for the lowest total on the board for Week 10, but I really can’t play it any other way. Tennessee has scored 20 or fewer points in 5 games so far, and Denver has only allowed 21 or more points once. That’s led to 4 straight unders cashing in Broncos games, and 5 straight in Titans games. With Tennessee likely running the ball and draining the clock, plus Denver’s well-known struggles on offense, I see this as a very low-scoring game.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 942-782 ATS (+88.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
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